1. What does Xi Jinping want to accomplish at the party congress?

There are 5 important areas, says Vijay Gokhale:

• Augment his personalistic leadership through personnel changes.
• He’s trying to enshrine himself as Marxism’s interpreter-in-chief in the 21st century.
• He is trying to sanctify his actions with the force of law. That will make it difficult for anyone to question it.
• He will intensify the process of detaching China in core sectors from foreign dependance.
• Make China a national security state; hardening of domestic supply chains

The success of all of this depends on internal party politics and the economy—which is showing worrisome signs. And the extent to which the party state inhibits innovation and creative ideas.

A context to the 20th CCP congress, by Prof Bo Zhiyue

• The leadership changes at the congress will have implications for state leaders in the meeting that will happen in March 2023.
• Xi has 4 titles: General Secretary of the party, Chairman of the central military commission of the party, President of the People’s Republic of China, and Chairman of the central military commission of PRC. He holds 2 military positions that could be held by two people
• We tend to assume that the leadership has been decided already. Because it is not up to the party central committee or the party congress per se to decide that—they are in theory rubber stamps. But that has not been decided yet.
• If you observe China closely, there are signs of power ups and downs. If you read Premier Li Keqiang’s talk at the 73rd anniversary of the founding of the PRC, you will get a sense that no one has been decided for the top job.
• So Xi’s intent will be to amend the CCP constitution
  • To establish himself as the core of the Central Committee and the entire party, and establish his thought as a guide for the party and the whole country.
  • To create a new position as the party chairman. Because Xi faces two major hurdles—age limit (the top leadership has followed a rule of 68 as the retirement age; Xi is now 69), and term limit (2 consecutive terms). Xi has served 2 terms as general secretary of the party, and now wants to start a new term as chairman.
• There are signs of dissent:
  • On September 21, the top military leadership had a major conference—without Xi, who’s been chairman of the central military commission for 10 years.
  • On September 23, the People’s Liberation Daily published an article reviewing the past 10 years of military achievements. And it omits many reference markers of Xi that he has developed over the 10 years. One of them is Xi Jinping Thought—on strengthening the military, which was written into the CCP Constitution.

2. What signs should we be looking for in the party congress regarding support for Xi and the direction the economy is headed?

Vijay Gokhale:

• The change to chairman of the party is only a change in nomenclature, and may not indicate dilution of power. On Xi’s absence, sometimes leaders find it convenient to absent themselves when there’s still a decision to be finalised. We’ve seen this with Mao during the Tiananmen incident.